The reason the world is shutting down

Many people are finding it hard to understand the alarm and the unprecedented closures we have been seeing around the world.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can see how many people are getting sick from the coronavirus or the daily cases in countries and states I have been tracking.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1De7R90hoTytZL_a3xcx4yHiMl0LhCv0uXHabL_jWpYE/edit?usp=sharing

It’s hard for people to understand exponential growth. 36 hours ago an educated friend of mine told me there were just a few cases in US and that we were doing a better job than Eu at preventing this and 8 hours ago someone with about 8 degrees felt that we would only have a few hundred people die in NYC.

Being able to predict that cases in US will be over 600 the next and Italy over 5000 despite being shut down for a week will help explain what is happening to people.

The best practice in the community is to self isolate as much as possible and we still aren’t doing that in the US.

As I am typing this I am listening to CNN talk about how ER doctors and nurses in Washington and NJ are coming down with COVID-19.

The amount of cases diagnosed in most countries is very under-estimated and when countries shut down it takes 12-14 days for the cases to stop being created. Things are much worse than they seem and will be much worse for 2 weeks. Also the amount of people dying is under-estimated since many deaths aren’t found out to be due to coronavirus. Tests aren’t available and populations that have many cases think they have few or none. Everyone needs to see how many people they can avoid ASAP.

The US says that people should avoid crowds over 50 people. I think we should have isolation as much as is practical and possible.

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